IraqPerhaps as a result of reading
Daniel Larison and
Rod Dreher's blogs recently, I've been thinking of what the options are in the Middle East. It's clear from the news, especially pieces like
this, that the current strategy is failing. Something needs to change, and needs to change dramatically. But what? Most options either more or less give the insurgents what they want, or pursue largely the same types of strategy that have led us to this place in the first instance. So, with my trademark humility, allow me to propose The Solution:
First, divide Iraq. Iraqi Nationalism has been shattered by the insurgency, adn there remains no real constituency demanding the country stay together. The Kurds get the country they always wanted, with the cities of Kirkuk and Mosul intact. The Shiites get to have a nation of their own, and will not have to worry about keeping the Sunnis from killing them.
The Sunnis have caused a great number of problems, and so it would be nice to reduce their power still further. I say it's time to call up King Abdullah of Jordan and see whether he's interested in taking over any part of Sunni Iraq. Let's not forget a cardinal rule of geopolitics: a monarchy is better than a republic. The remaining part of Sunni Iraq gets what they want, pretty much: no Shiite domination, no foreign occupiers and a chance to control their own destiny. Of course, their destiny won't include a very substantial part of Iraq's oil resources. That gets divided up principally between the Kurds and the Shiites. Perhaps eventually they'll see the wisdom of coming under the stable rule of the Hashemite dynasty. Since the Sunnis have been deprived of the oil wealth they appropriated during the Baathist years, we might as well allow them to control Baghdad (with the probable exception of Shiite suburbs, at least as a transitional measure. It will be necessary to allow Shiites in Baghdad to provide for their own safety either until the willingness of Sunni radicals to kill Shiites evaporates, or the Shiites leave Baghdad for greener pastures.)
Such a solution means that the substantial military deployments will no longer be necessary. There would be little need to stay in the Kurd or Shia state except at the request of the new governments there- and the entire point is to get out of the Sunni areas. Dividing Iraq not only removes the necessity for America to police Iraq, but it removes the need to fight for control of the central government.
What are the drawbacks? Well, this will strengthen the Shiite domination of the largest and most important state to emerge from the rubble of Iraq. Still, the Shia largely control Iraq as it is- why should we be overly concerned that the
Shiite revival will grow stronger with a firmer grip on a smaller prize? If this is a key concern, there is virtually no way to prevent it other than allowing Shiite Iraq to expend all its energy putting down a Sunni insurrection, which is not an acceptable strategy.
Secondly, you annoy the dickens out of Iran, Syria and Turkey by creating a Kurdish nation in northern Iraq. But who cares? Turkey would be foolish to try to invade with American troops helping train a new Kurdish army (not because the Kurdish army would be unbeatable, but because it would be an implicit American guarantee of Kurdish independence, and Turkey is not eager to get kicked out of NATO and lose whatever chance it has at getting into the European Union). And annoying Iran and Syria is a definite advantage. The Kurds would immediately become the most pro-Western nation in the region, and would need minimal international assistance.
Lastly, such a solution will result in substantial population migrations. With Baghdad no longer the capital of a powerful, oil rich nation, I'd imagine that a great number of Shiites will return to Shiite Iraq. A less dramatic result would probably occur in Kirkuk and Mosul, where a fair chunk of the Sunni Arab population will probably slowly migrate back across the border. These migrations are unlikely to prove as bloody as the current near-civil war situation.
I've referred to this as The Solution. Will it be? I don't know. I'm optimistic that the result will largely be positive. But the principal reason to do this is that virtually nothing could be worse than the current situation. As a secondary reason, remember that the entire region is dysfunctional. Exerting pressure Syria, Iran & Saudi Arabia by creating counterweights to their power is a postive move for the region. Ultimately we are dealing with an Islamic threat which will continue to gather its strength unless some events move in our favour. Geopolitics are incredibly complex, no more so than in the Middle East. Introducing a few unknowns into the equation will increase our chances of some positive element emerging.
Update: There have been some significant edits to this post expanding on my initial thoughts.